Tampa Bay Weather

AI LLM Synopsis (Highly Experimental!)

Updated: May 6, 2026 6:26am

Through the next 48 hours, a strong Atlantic ridge dominates while a weak front noses into north Florida late Thu–Thu night; this keeps Tampa Bay hot, mostly dry, and in a classic sea‑breeze regime with morning SE winds veering SW/W 10–15 kt each afternoon (moderate chop) and easing to SE 5–10 kt overnight. The airmass remains stable and dry under subsidence (column moisture/PW near ~1–1.2", inland RH dropping to 35–45%), yielding low CAPE and stout CIN, so convection over the Bay is unlikely today and Thursday; only a very slight chance of a stray shower late Thu night north of the Bay as moisture begins to creep in ahead of the stalled boundary. Confidence is high for quiet weather through Thu night, moderate thereafter as the front approaches for the weekend. No tropical concerns—NHC lists no active systems. Radar is quiet and GOES imagery shows dry skies; mariners mainly watch for the daily sea‑breeze wind shift and any isolated echoes developing north of the Skyway late Thu.

Watches/Warnings

Watches/Warnings
Watches/Warnings TBW
legend1 legend2 legend3 legend4

Current Watches, Warnings, and Alerts

No active alerts or watches for the specified zones.

Current 500 mb Chart

Current Surface Analysis

WPC Surface Analysis - CONUS
WPC Surface Analysis and Satellite Composite - CONUS
OPC Surface Analysis W Atlantic
Gulf Latest Analysis

National Forecast Maps

Day 1

Day 1

Day 2

Day 2

Day 3

Day 3

Pressure/Height Anomalies

500mb

500mb Anomaly

MSLP

MSLP Anomaly

WPC Short-Term Prog Charts – Surface

6 Hr

WPC Prog

12 Hr

WPC Prog

18 Hr

WPC Prog

24 Hr

WPC Prog

30 Hr

WPC Prog

36 Hr

WPC Prog

48 Hr

WPC Prog

60 Hr

WPC Prog

72 Hr

WPC Prog

96 Hr

WPC Prog

120 Hr

WPC Prog

144 Hr

WPC Prog

168 Hr

WPC Prog

WPC Short Term Forecast

WPC Extended Range Forecast

WPC Prog Charts – 500mb

Day 3

Day 4

Day 5

Day 6

Day 7

24 Hr

48 Hr

72 Hr

96 Hr

OPC Prog Charts – Surface

24 Hr

48 Hr

72 Hr

96 Hr

SPC Convective Outlook

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4-8

day 4-8 outlook

Current Warnings/Watches & Discussions

Current Watches

SPC

WPC

Tampa Area Forecast Discussion

Satellite

GOES E Full Disk
water vapor

Relative 700-300mb Relative Humidity

Radar

National Radar Loop
SE Radar
TBW Radar Loop
Skytower Tampabay

Lightning

Lightning

Lightning Density – 15 Minutes

Lightning Lightning
Lightning Lightning

Latest Local METARS

Florida Surface

FL Models

NWS MLB ADAS

MSLP GFS

Current GFS MSLP & 10m Wind

Current ECMWF MSLP & 10m Wind

NWS TBW NowCast

Today

NowCast-Today

Tonight

NowCast-Tonight

Tomorrow

NowCast-Tomorrow

GraphicCast 1

GraphicCast

GraphicCast 2

GraphicCast

Temperatures

High Temp Low Temp
High Temp2 Low Temp2
High Temp3 Low Temp3

UV Index

Day 1

Heat Index Heat Index

Day 2

Day 3

Heat Advisory

Heat Advisory Heat Advisory

Outlook

outlook

Rain

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

Day 5

5 Day Cummulative

Day 1

Day 1 Excessive Rain

Day 2

Day 2 Excessive Rain

Day 3

Day 3 Excessive Rain

Day 4

Day 4 Excessive Rain

Outlook

outlook

Monitor

Drought Monitor

Monthly Outlook

Monthly Drought

Seasonal Outlook

Seasonal Drought

Convective Inidices

Convective Indices
Theta-e

CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy.

A measure of instability through the depth of the atmosphere, and is related to updraft strength in thunderstorms.
  • Weak instability: < 1000
  • Moderate instability: 1000-2500
  • Strong instability: 2500-4000
  • Extreme instability: > 4000

CIN = convective inhibition.

Represents the “negative” area on a sounding that must be overcome for storm initiation.

LI = Lifted Index

The temperature difference between the 500 mb temperature and the temperature of a parcel lifted to 500 mb. Negative values denote unstable conditions.

Theta-e

The higher the value the more unstable. Higher Theta‑e values indicate a greater chance for positive buoyancy. Severe weather and excessive rainfall often occur near or just upstream from a Theta‑e ridge
  • > 2: Conv Activity Unlikely
  • 0 to 2: Stable
  • -3 to 0: Marginally Unstable
  • -4 to -6: Moderately Unstable
  • -7 to -9: Very Unstable
  • < -9: Extremelt Unstable

SRH = Storm Relative Helicity

A measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. Larger values of 3km SRH (greater than 250 m? s-2) and 0-1 km SRH (greater than 100 m s-3) suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells.

Atmopsheric Sounding

Skew-T Diagram Cheat Sheet

1. Axes and Basic Layout

  • X-Axis (Bottom): Temperature in °C (skewed right with height)
  • Y-Axis (Left): Pressure in hPa (logarithmic scale)
  • Isobars: Horizontal constant pressure lines (e.g., 1000, 850, 700, 500, 300 hPa)
  • Isotherms: Diagonal lines (skewed right); constant temperature
  • Dry Adiabats: Curved, upward-right; dry parcel ascent path
  • Moist Adiabats: Curved, upward-left; saturated parcel ascent path
  • Mixing Ratio Lines: Dashed, upward-right; constant dew point depression

2. Key Plotted Lines

  • Environmental Temperature: Red or black solid line (actual air temperature)
  • Dew Point Temperature: Green or blue solid line (moisture profile)
  • Parcel Ascent Line: Usually yellow or dashed; follows adiabats for lifted parcel

3. Wind Barbs (Right Margin)

  • Full barb: 10 knots
  • Half barb: 5 knots
  • Pennant (flag): 50 knots
  • Direction: Where wind is coming from

4. Important Atmospheric Features

Feature Interpretation
LCL (Lifting Condensation Level)Cloud base; where T and Td converge
LFC (Level of Free Convection)Parcel rises freely; indicates instability
EL (Equilibrium Level)Parcel cools below environment; near cloud top
CAPEPositive energy; >1000 J/kg = storms; >2500 = strong storms
CINNegative energy; CIN > 50 J/kg may suppress convection
InversionTemp increases with height; suppresses convection
Dry LayerLarge T-Td difference; limits clouds/enhances downdrafts
Moist LayerSmall T-Td difference; promotes fog/clouds near surface

5. Rule-of-Thumb Values

Instability – CAPE

CAPE Interpretation
0–500 J/kgStable / weak convection
500–1000Marginal instability
1000–2500Moderate instability
2500–3500Strong instability
>3500Extreme (severe storm potential)

Wind Shear (0–6 km Bulk Shear)

  • <20 kt: Weak shear – pulse storms
  • 20–35 kt: Moderate shear – organized storms possible
  • >35 kt: Strong shear – supercells/severe potential

Lapse Rate (700–500 hPa)

  • >6.5°C/km: Steep lapse rate = more instability
  • <6.0°C/km: Stable or neutral layer

6. Specialized Indicators

Indicator What to Watch For
Veering WindsClockwise with height; warm-air advection
Backing WindsCounterclockwise; cold-air advection
Critical Thickness (~540 dam)Useful for winter snow prediction
Dry SlotMid-level dry air; evaporation/microburst risk

7. Example Scenarios

Thunderstorm Likely

  • CAPE > 1000 J/kg
  • LCL < 1500 m
  • LFC present
  • Wind shear > 20 kt
  • CIN < 25 J/kg

Fog Formation

  • Surface T ≈ Td
  • Saturated boundary layer
  • Light/calm winds
  • Surface inversion

Supercell Environment

  • CAPE > 2000
  • Shear > 40 kt
  • High lapse rates
  • Veering winds with height

Marine Forecasts

Coastal Forecast

TBW coastal zones

Offshore Forecast – Gulf of Mexico

GoM Zones

SLOSH ETSS – St. Pete

P-ETSS NAEFS Hillsborough Bay

P-ETSS GEFS Hillsborough Bay

NHC Outlook

2 Day Outlook

7 Day Outlook

CPC Hazards AtlanticOutlook

Cyclone Origin & Track Climatology By Week

Active Tropical Cyclones (PTC and higher)

Tropical Surface Analysis

Experimental/Academic Tropical Resources

2025 Hurricane Season

Outlook

Discussion

0-168 hr

0-48 hr

0-48hr TC Genesis

0-120 hr

0-120hr TC Genesis
CMC 168 ECMWF 168 GFS 168
NAVGEM 168 UKMET 168 Concensus 168

0-120hr Verification This Season

120 Verification
NOTE: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error. Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

CONUS

Landfall - Any Intensity
Landfall - 64+
Landfall - 96+
Landfall - Timing

Florida

Landfall FL - Any
Landfall FL - 64+
Landfall FL - 96+
Landfall FL - Timing

500mb Vorticity

Shear Support

Shear/Support

Generalized Shear

Gulf Shear Carribean Shear 0-24 Shear 24-48 Shear

Vertical Instability

0-24 Instability 24-48 Instability

Mid Atmospheric Winds

24 Hours
48 Hours
72 Hours
96 Hours
SST Anomaly
Sst anomaly animated El Nino Meter

Day 1

Day 1 Severe Wind - FL

Day 2

Day 2 Severe Wind - FL

Waves

TBW NWPS Waves TBW NWPS Waves
Gulf Waves Atlantic Waves
NDBC GoM

SE CONUS

SE Atl Buoys

GoM

GoM Buoys

42001

42003

42036

42040

Sunrise/Sunset & Moon

East Bay, Tampa

St. Petersburg

Skyway Currents

Middle Tampa Bay Buoy

Middle Tampa Bay Day Wind

DIYC

DIYC Current image
Wind
TWD

Downtown SW

Downtown Webcam

Bayshore NE

Webcam 2

SkyTower E

skytower E

SkyTower W

Skytower W

Gulf of Mexico Currents

Gulf Current

Altimetry Currents


GOES 4-Day SST Unavailable

ASCAT B

ASCAT B Whole
ASCAT B FL
ASCAT B FL Descending

ASCAT C

ASCAT C Whole
ASCAT C FL
ASCAT C FL Descending

Edition: 04.07.2026