Tampa Bay Weather
AI LLM Synopsis (Highly Experimental!)
Through the next 48 hours, a strong Atlantic ridge dominates while a weak front noses into north Florida late Thu–Thu night; this keeps Tampa Bay hot, mostly dry, and in a classic sea‑breeze regime with morning SE winds veering SW/W 10–15 kt each afternoon (moderate chop) and easing to SE 5–10 kt overnight. The airmass remains stable and dry under subsidence (column moisture/PW near ~1–1.2", inland RH dropping to 35–45%), yielding low CAPE and stout CIN, so convection over the Bay is unlikely today and Thursday; only a very slight chance of a stray shower late Thu night north of the Bay as moisture begins to creep in ahead of the stalled boundary. Confidence is high for quiet weather through Thu night, moderate thereafter as the front approaches for the weekend. No tropical concerns—NHC lists no active systems. Radar is quiet and GOES imagery shows dry skies; mariners mainly watch for the daily sea‑breeze wind shift and any isolated echoes developing north of the Skyway late Thu.
Watches/Warnings
Current Watches, Warnings, and Alerts
No active alerts or watches for the specified zones.
Current 500 mb Chart
Current Surface Analysis
WPC Short-Term Prog Charts – Surface
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48 Hr
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60 Hr
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72 Hr
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96 Hr
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120 Hr
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144 Hr
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168 Hr
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WPC Short Term Forecast
WPC Extended Range Forecast
Tampa Area Forecast Discussion
Relative 700-300mb Relative Humidity
Latest Local METARS
Rain
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5 Day Cummulative |
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Outlook
Convective Inidices
CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy.
- Weak instability: < 1000
- Moderate instability: 1000-2500
- Strong instability: 2500-4000
- Extreme instability: > 4000
CIN = convective inhibition.
LI = Lifted Index
Theta-e
- > 2: Conv Activity Unlikely
- 0 to 2: Stable
- -3 to 0: Marginally Unstable
- -4 to -6: Moderately Unstable
- -7 to -9: Very Unstable
- < -9: Extremelt Unstable
SRH = Storm Relative Helicity
Atmopsheric Sounding
Skew-T Diagram Cheat Sheet
1. Axes and Basic Layout
- X-Axis (Bottom): Temperature in °C (skewed right with height)
- Y-Axis (Left): Pressure in hPa (logarithmic scale)
- Isobars: Horizontal constant pressure lines (e.g., 1000, 850, 700, 500, 300 hPa)
- Isotherms: Diagonal lines (skewed right); constant temperature
- Dry Adiabats: Curved, upward-right; dry parcel ascent path
- Moist Adiabats: Curved, upward-left; saturated parcel ascent path
- Mixing Ratio Lines: Dashed, upward-right; constant dew point depression
2. Key Plotted Lines
- Environmental Temperature: Red or black solid line (actual air temperature)
- Dew Point Temperature: Green or blue solid line (moisture profile)
- Parcel Ascent Line: Usually yellow or dashed; follows adiabats for lifted parcel
3. Wind Barbs (Right Margin)
- Full barb: 10 knots
- Half barb: 5 knots
- Pennant (flag): 50 knots
- Direction: Where wind is coming from
4. Important Atmospheric Features
| Feature | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| LCL (Lifting Condensation Level) | Cloud base; where T and Td converge |
| LFC (Level of Free Convection) | Parcel rises freely; indicates instability |
| EL (Equilibrium Level) | Parcel cools below environment; near cloud top |
| CAPE | Positive energy; >1000 J/kg = storms; >2500 = strong storms |
| CIN | Negative energy; CIN > 50 J/kg may suppress convection |
| Inversion | Temp increases with height; suppresses convection |
| Dry Layer | Large T-Td difference; limits clouds/enhances downdrafts |
| Moist Layer | Small T-Td difference; promotes fog/clouds near surface |
5. Rule-of-Thumb Values
Instability – CAPE
| CAPE | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 0–500 J/kg | Stable / weak convection |
| 500–1000 | Marginal instability |
| 1000–2500 | Moderate instability |
| 2500–3500 | Strong instability |
| >3500 | Extreme (severe storm potential) |
Wind Shear (0–6 km Bulk Shear)
- <20 kt: Weak shear – pulse storms
- 20–35 kt: Moderate shear – organized storms possible
- >35 kt: Strong shear – supercells/severe potential
Lapse Rate (700–500 hPa)
- >6.5°C/km: Steep lapse rate = more instability
- <6.0°C/km: Stable or neutral layer
6. Specialized Indicators
| Indicator | What to Watch For |
|---|---|
| Veering Winds | Clockwise with height; warm-air advection |
| Backing Winds | Counterclockwise; cold-air advection |
| Critical Thickness (~540 dam) | Useful for winter snow prediction |
| Dry Slot | Mid-level dry air; evaporation/microburst risk |
7. Example Scenarios
Thunderstorm Likely
- CAPE > 1000 J/kg
- LCL < 1500 m
- LFC present
- Wind shear > 20 kt
- CIN < 25 J/kg
Fog Formation
- Surface T ≈ Td
- Saturated boundary layer
- Light/calm winds
- Surface inversion
Supercell Environment
- CAPE > 2000
- Shear > 40 kt
- High lapse rates
- Veering winds with height
SLOSH ETSS – St. Pete
P-ETSS NAEFS Hillsborough Bay
P-ETSS GEFS Hillsborough Bay
NHC Outlook
2 Day Outlook
7 Day Outlook
Active Tropical Cyclones (PTC and higher)
Experimental/Academic Tropical Resources
- Tropical Tidbits Aircraft Recconaissance
- NOAA STAR Aircraft Recconaissance
- Tomer Burg’s TroPYCal
- CyclonicWX
- Brian Tang’s Tropical Trends
- NCEP Hurricane Model Archive
- Historical Hurricane Tracks
- Google DeepMind Hurricane AI Public Preview
- Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
- Colorado State Current Season ACE
- NHC Current/Historical Hurricane Seasons and TC Reports
- Cuban National Radar
Outlook
Discussion
CONUS
Florida
500mb Vorticity
Shear Support
Mid Atmospheric Winds
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Sunrise/Sunset & Moon
DIYC
Downtown SW
Bayshore NE
SkyTower E
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